Category: News Room

ARTICLE – Analysis by Jonathan Levin | Bloomberg

The Federal Reserve is inching toward acknowledging how painful its inflation fight is likely to be, but it’s still a lot closer to the optimists than the pessimists.

On a day when it raised interest rates by 0.75 percentage point to a range of 3% to 3.25%, the Fed also released economic projections showing that its median forecast for unemployment is 4.4% by the end of 2023, up from the current 3.7%, meaning more than a million fewer jobs as a result of its campaign. That marked an increase from previous projections in June that showed unemployment peaking around 4.1%, which were widely panned as unrealistic. Yet the numbers still look rosy compared with the labor-market damage that historically accompanies rounds of aggressive monetary policy tightening.

For the Fed, the projections are a balancing act between economics and public relations. The central bank is fighting the worst inflation in four decades, and economic orthodoxy suggests that the overheated labor market is creating upward pressure on wages and consumer prices. As that thinking goes, the only way to break the cycle is to send unemployment higher — a barbaric principle on the face of it that many Americans would deeply object to if they could see through the opacity of the central banking process and its web of economic jargon. Yet for better or worse, there’s virtually no hope that policy makers will concoct a better way of tackling inflation anytime soon.

Read more on The Washington Post.

ENTRETIEN – Président de la commission des affaires étrangères de l’Assemblée nationale, le député MoDem a siégé au Parlement européen de 1989 à 2007. Il répond aux attaques formulées contre l’Union européenne depuis trente ans. Selon lui, la guerre en Ukraine change la donne et remet l’enjeu de la puissance, que les 27 refusaient d’assumer, au centre des préoccupations. Il espère qu’elle sera l’occasion de forger une Europe authentiquement politique.

Prime Minister Edi Rama has declared that Albanians are Europeans and want to be part of the European Union as he spoke about the Iranian cyber attack against Albania, the desire for EU membership and other issues in an interview with Susanne Koebl and Walter Mayr of the well-known German newspaper “Der Spiegel”.

In the interview, Rama underlined that cyber attack’s goal was to destroy Albania’s entire system of digital services.

Meanwhile, he was asked about the situation with Russia and reiterated that Serbia cannot sanction it. Regarding the issue of Kosovo, Rama says that Serbia should recognize it, but Aleksandar Vucic cannot do it.

Part of the interview below:

DER SPIEGEL: Mr. Prime Minister, Albania severed diplomatic relations with Iran a few days ago. The diplomats had only 24 hours to leave the country. What is behind this?

Edi Rama: Iran attacked our country with a massive cyber attack. The goal was to destroy all the digital government services that we have built so hard over many years. Thanks to our IT specialists, experts from Microsoft and the US government, we were able to reduce the damage.

DER SPIEGEL: The background to the attack is, apparently, the presence of several thousand members of the Iranian opposition, who are actively working for regime change in Iran and cooperating with the US, the so-called People’s Mujahideen (MEK). In 2013, your country accepted the MEK from Iraq at the request of Washington. Would you prefer to leave this group today?

Edi Rama: No, Albania has a proud tradition of sheltering people in danger. And our strategic alliance with the US cannot simply mean that Washington always has our support. Sometimes we have to help the USA too. Albanians owe a lot to the Americans.

DER SPIEGEL: The war in Ukraine has changed the world and s now threatening the fragile peace in the Western Balkans. How deep is this divide?

Edi Rama: Very deep. More than 80 percent of Serbs think positively of how Putin is currently opposing the West, but in Albania his popularity is less than one percent. This is the result of a survey conducted by our government, immediately after the start of the war. Moscow’s influence in Serbia is storng, in the Serbian part of Bosnia-Herzegovina it is even very strong. Russia has a lot of influence on the Serbs. We must be aware that this influence can turn into something terrible.

DER SPIEGEL: What should we be prepared for?

Edi Rama: Putin would be happy if there was a conflict somewhere in the Balkans. The head of the Kremlin bullies and provokes wherever he can. In his speeches, Putin constantly refers to Kosovo, the most painful of the unresolved problems in the Balkans. We must at all costs prevent something bad from happening.

DER SPIEGEL: What do you advise?

Edi Rama: You can’t ask for much from Belgrade now. Everything can be turned upside down. Serbia, for exeample, cannot sanction Russia.

DER SPIEGEL: Putin likes to use the history of Kosovo as a template for the occupation of Crimea, Donetsk and Luhansk. Does he have the facts that NATO bombed Belgrade and invaded Kosovo without a UN mandate?

Edi Rama: The only reason there was no mandate was that Russia and China voted against it. The annexation of Crimea follows an imperialist model, like the attack on Ukraine, a sovereign and democratic country. The bombing of Belgrade and the liberation of Kosovo at that time, on the other hand, served the purpose of saving the population from ethnic cleansing. And the International Court of Justice finally confirmed Kosovo’s independence as an act of international law.

DER SPIEGEL: Has anything really changed in the Western Balkans in the last twenty years?

Edi Rama; The Balkans have always been a tense region, it is fragile. But I contend that the situation is better today than at any other time.

DER SPIEGEL: How can this be determined?

Edi Rama: Despite the differences, the six heads of government of the Western Balkans have agreed since a meeting in Berlin in 2014 that we must turn the tide of history together. It takes small steps to build a larger relationship, just as the Germans and French slowly moved toward complete peace after World War II.

DER SPIEGEL: Does this also apply to your relationship with Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić?

Edi Rama: Absolutelu. The history of Albanians and Serbs is a history of pain and blood. But when I was elected prime minister, I decided to go to Belgrade. My visit in 2014 was the first of an Albanian head of government to Serbia after 68 years. And then Vučić came to Tirana. This shows how far we have come.

DER SPIEGEL: Is there any hope for an agreement on the Kosovo issue.

Edi Rama: Regarding Kosovo, we agreed that we would disagree. I think that Serbia should recognize Kosovo. But Aleksandar Vučić cannot do that. But, at least we can talk about this topic. And we cooperate in projects like the Open Balkans.

DER SPIEGEL: A kind of mini-Schenghen between North Macedonia, Albania and Serbia?

Edi Rama: Yes, where all other Balkan countries are also invited. Vučić has thus accepted the border between Albania and Kosovo. A big step forward and a really big political achievement.

Read the article on the Albanian Daily News

https://albaniandailynews.com/news/iranian-cyber-attacked-aimed-at-ruining-albania-s-digital-services-rama

Les élections législatives confirment la banalisation du parti d’extrême droite mené par Jimmie Akesson. Des négociations s’ouvrent pour qu’il apporte son soutien au gouvernement que va former le leader du parti conservateur des Modérés, sans être invité à y participer pour autant.

« Maintenant nous allons remettre de l’ordre en Suède ! » a promis Ulf Kristersson, chef du parti conservateur des Modérés, qui va devoir composer le futur gouvernement de droite sorti des urnes dimanche. A l’issue de ce scrutin si serré qu’il a fallu trois jours pour comptabiliser les voix, la Suède vire à droite toute. Les Démocrates de Suède, un parti d’extrême droite qui a fait toute sa campagne sur l’immigration, la violence entre gangs et le pouvoir d’achat, a gagné 11 sièges (20,5 % des voix) et devient le premier parti de droite et le deuxième parti du pays.

Magdalena Andersson, la Première ministre, en a tout de suite tiré la leçon et annoncé sa démission mercredi soir. Très populaire, elle est pourtant parvenue à faire gagner des suffrages à son parti par rapport à 2018 (30,1 % des voix et 7 sièges de plus). « Les deux premiers partis du pays, les sociaux-démocrates et les Démocrates de Suède, ont progressé. C’est assez inhabituel pour un parti de gouvernement, et cela ne l’empêche pas de perdre le pouvoir », observe Douglas Brommesson, professeur de sciences politiques à l’université de Linnaeus.

Mais le parti social-démocrate n’a pas d’alliés suffisants pour espérer monter une coalition. Ses alliés du Parti de gauche et du Parti du centre ont essayé, en vain, de nouvelles stratégies. Le Parti du centre est allé plus à gauche pour se rapprocher des sociaux-démocrates, et cela n’a pas fonctionné (6,7 %). Sa dirigeante Annie Lööf a démissionné mercredi. Le Parti de gauche a voulu atténuer son profil urbain pour aller vers de petites villes industrielles, sans grand succès non plus.

Soutien au parlement

Les Verts sont les seuls parmi les petites formations de gauche à avoir gagné deux sièges. A droite, tous les partis à l’exception des Démocrates suédois ont perdu des sièges. Les Libéraux ont tout de même fait mieux que prévu, car ils étaient à 2 % dans les sondages il y a seulement un an.

La nouvelle coalition comprendra a minima les Modérés et les Chrétiens-démocrates, l’entrée des Libéraux dépendra de l’accord passé avec les Démocrates de Suède avec qui les relations sont très tendues. Ces derniers, menés par Jimmie Akesson, devraient a priori être un soutien au parlement et s’abstenir d’entrer au gouvernement.

« La droite va négocier un accord avec les Démocrates de Suède, qu’elle a contribué à presque normaliser dans le paysage politique suédois. Cela ne devrait pas être long, il y a déjà un certain nombre de choses sur lesquelles ils se sont mis d’accord, comme le politique énergétique », indique Douglas Brommesson. La préservation de l’assurance maladie et de l’assurance chômage font partie des priorités du parti populiste qui veut être « la bonne conscience d’un gouvernement bourgeois » tandis que les Modérés militaient surtout pour des baisses d’impôts.

La majorité est très faible avec un écart de trois sièges au Parlement, ce qui rend le gouvernement très vulnérable, alors qu’il devra gérer une inflation historique et une grave crise de l’énergie. « La grosse partie des négociations va consister à cadrer le soutien des Démocrates de Suède et voir comment organiser le travail, reprend l’expert. Une façon serait de les accepter comme observateurs dans l’administration, pour qu’ils suivent bien le travail et ne s’opposent pas au Parlement. » Les Libéraux l’ont déjà fait avec les sociaux-démocrates, et les Verts aussi. En cas d’échec des négociations, Magdalena Andersson s’est dite ouverte à travailler avec la droite.

Lire l’article sur le site des Echos

https://www.lesechos.fr/monde/europe/la-suede-vire-a-droite-1788253

Lire l’article sur le site de TV5 Monde.

ENTRETIEN – Hubert Védrine, ancien ministre des Affaires étrangères, répond aux questions de Sonia Mabrouk au sujet des obsèques du siècle pour la Reine et des obsèques très géopolitiques aussi par la présence des grands de ce monde et l’absence d’autres.

Retrouvez l’entretien complet sur Europe 1.

Read the entire article on the website of Foreign Affairs.

Publié le 12/09/2022

CHRONIQUE – La géopolitique de demain sera celle de l’affrontement entre le bloc occidental et le cartel des sanctionnés.

“It’s not for nothing.” Ukraine’s backers say that an offensive over the weekend shows Western military aid is helping, and that it’s time to supply more sophisticated weaponry.

BRUSSELS — A sudden Ukrainian success on the battlefield provided a boost not only to Ukrainians but to their supporters in Europe, who face a difficult winter of soaring energy prices and inflation.

The ability of the Ukrainian military to use its Western-supplied arms to great advantage against Russia will likely increase the pressure on countries like Germany to supply more sophisticated, heavier weapons like tanks, analysts say.

“The Ukrainian counterattack demonstrates to people that it helps, what we are doing — the money and the arms supplies — that it’s not for nothing,” said Sven Biscop, director for Europe of the Egmont Institute, a Brussels research group.

Read the article on The New York Times.

ENTRETIEN – Alors que l’armée ukrainienne a entamé une contre-offensive, le parti Russie Unie de Vladimir Poutine a proposé un vote sur le rattachement à la Russie des territoires ukrainiens occupés. Le géographe voit dans ce référendum un habillage que personne ne reconnaîtra.

FIGAROVOX. – En pleine contre-offensive militaire ukrainienne, le parti de Vladimir Poutine, Russie Unie, a proposé ce mercredi d’organiser le 4 novembre des référendums dans les territoires ukrainiens occupés par les forces russes pour les rattacher à la Russie. Comment lire cette proposition?

MICHEL FOUCHER. – J’y vois une certaine confusion parce que ce sont des propositions que l’on a reportées, et d’autre part, cela paraît relever d’initiatives locales. Dans la région de Kherson, le responsable adjoint du gouvernement d’occupation avait proposé cela avant de demander une pause. À ces initiatives s’ajoutent celles de Moscou, preuve que l’entreprise de Poutine est de rassembler le monde russe dont fait partie la petite Russie. Cela signifie l’Ukraine, ce qui confirme l’objectif central du Kremlin dans cette offensive, donc rassembler le monde russe de gré ou de force.

Lire l’entretien sur le site du Figaro.

La guerre menée par la Russie en Ukraine a permis aux États-Unis de se poser en protecteurs du continent mais aussi de renforcer leur influence au détriment de la volonté d’autonomie stratégique des Européens. À l’occasion de la publication du Ramses, ouvrage prospectif de l’Institut français des relations internationales, son président, Thierry de Montbrial, fait part de ses inquiétudes.

Recueilli par Jean-Christophe Ploquin

La Croix : La guerre d’Ukraine reste contenue dans l’est et le sud de ce pays depuis plusieurs mois. Existe-t-il toutefois un risque d’extension du conflit ?

Thierry de Montbrial : Tout d’abord, cette guerre montre que la formule de Clausewitz, «La guerre n’est que la continuation de la politique par d’autres moyens », reste universelle. Le droit international est une digue qui n’arrête pas ceux qui croient pouvoir payer le prix du sang pour ce qu’ils croient être leurs intérêts vitaux. Une extension territoriale de la guerre d’Ukraine paraît peu vraisemblable à court terme, en raison d’un rapport de force insuffisamment favorable aux Russes.

The Jerusalem municipal planning and building committee this week approved the construction of new homes for Jewish settlers in the Givat HaShaked neighborhood, which will straddle the Green Line. The development will be built next to the Palestinian quarter of Beit Safafa. When I called my Palestinian friend Hani to inquire about the issue and how to stop it, he told me he was rushing to meet the lawyer who is “the man” to handle such delicate missions.

Hani started talking about his friend Daniel Seidemann, an American Israeli in Jerusalem. Hani explained that Seidemann, the son of a young Jew who lived in Nazi Germany and fled to the US as the Second World War broke out, truly understands the concept of displacement, so he really understands what Palestinians are going through.

The turning point in his life came in 1991, when the government of Israel approved a settlement in the neighborhood of Silwan, to the south of the Old City of Jerusalem, in the shadow of Al-Aqsa. He was asked by a member of the Knesset to challenge the decision in the Supreme Court. He then discovered that there was a covert illegal campaign to take properties from their lawful owners and give them to settlers. This is when Seidemann started his war against injustice — an injustice inflicted by his own people on the Palestinians.

Hani said: “Whenever he looks out of his window, he says ‘40 percent of the people I see are occupied by me, by my people, and have no political rights, while I do’.”

Every time a new settlement is built, it makes any political settlement more elusive. Seidemann thinks the occupation is as harmful to Israel as it is to Palestine. Either Israel ends the occupation, or the occupation will end Israel. He is not only working for the Palestinians, but also for his own people and his own family. He wants his children to live in a decent society. The only way to have a reconciliation between the two peoples is for borders to be drawn and for Israel to no longer rule over Palestinian lives.

However, Hani laments that many people in Israel do not even think there is an occupation — the concept is slipping out of the public discourse, which is really dangerous. He also explains that, while the current government of Prime Minister Yair Lapid is less malicious than those headed by Benjamin Netanyahu, it has less cohesion. Therefore, many things can happen, even if not approved by Lapid. Hani explained that, despite all Netanyahu’s faults, he had everything under his control. This is not the case with the current government, which is more of a loose association of ministers, some of which are very pro-settlements, such as Ze’ev Elkin, the minister of housing and construction.

Talking with admiration about his dear friend, Hani told me about Seidemann’s struggle to prevent a family in Silwan from being evicted from their home. He fought for 19 years but ultimately the family was evicted. He also fought to have schools built for Palestinians in East Jerusalem. This is a fight Seidemann has been involved in for 10 years and he has partially succeeded.

Hani told me that Seidemann, a secular Jew, is working against the weaponization of religion. He also understands the significance of Al-Aqsa for Muslims around the world and he understands how the erosion of the status quo by Jewish extremists and Israeli nationalists, as well as the shows of Jewish triumphalism, nurture a feeling of violation among Palestinians and Muslims.

He added that Seidemann was now preparing for his biggest battle, which is to prevent the construction of the E-1 settlement. Every single American president and European leader has been against this settlement since it was first proposed in the early 1990s. If it is approved, then the two-state solution is finished, as this settlement will be deep in East Jerusalem and will fracture the West Bank in a way that means creating a Palestinian state will be impossible. However, now that the world is preoccupied with so many disasters, occupation is no longer a priority or even a subject of discussion. The extremists in Israel might take this opportunity to get the settlement approved.

After he finished speaking about Seidemann, I asked my friend: “And we Arabs, what are we doing to help Daniel and his ilk?” Hani answered while sounding disappointed: “Nothing.” But why nothing? Don’t we have countries that have diplomatic relations with Israel? Weren’t the Abraham Accords marketed as a step toward peace? Why don’t we promote people such as Seidemann, and encourage and support him? Why don’t we inject an end to the occupation in the process of normalization?

Arabs should not forget to stress the end of the occupation because, if we forget about this issue, it will come back and haunt us. Promoting people such as Seidemann inside Israel would be the best way to prevent that. Now, with normalization, Arabs are on the Israeli chessboard, and this is their chance to make the right move. To do that, they need to engage with people such as Seidemann.

Read the article on the website of Arab News.

Publié le 29/08/2022

CHRONIQUE – Après six mois de guerre, l’Hexagone s’est adpaté à une situation d’une gravité inédite, inconnue en Europe depuis la chute du communisme. Quelques réserves sont à émettre quant à la position de Paris

05 septembre 2022

Study will focus on the private sector, foreign investment and the impact on jobs

The UAE Space Agency has launched a survey to measure how the space sector has contributed to the national economy.

As the government announces more space projects and the number of private space companies increases in the UAE, the agency wants to carry out an extensive study of the sector.

The survey will focus on the number of companies working in the sector, foreign investment and the total spending on space projects.

It will also explore efforts to invest in research and development and space exploration, as well as the number of people employed in the sector.

Support for start-ups

Sarah Al Amiri, Minister of State for Public Education and Future Technology and chairwoman of the UAE Space Agency, announced the survey on Monday.

“The economic survey project for the space sector in the UAE is an important tool that helps in enhancing the decision-making process, drawing strategic policies, contributing to economic indicators, in addition to preparing national space plans and programmes,” she said.

Ms Al Amiri said the results would also support the work of start-ups and small and medium-size companies, and boost research projects.

“It will increase the UAE’s investment attractiveness in space projects and much more,” she said.

Read the original article on The National.

Former Australian Prime Minister and current President and CEO of the Asia Society, Kevin Rudd, assessed the economic and ideological developments of the People’s Republic under the leadership of Xi Jinping at an Atlantik-Brücke roundtable with Sigmar Gabriel. The two panelists talked about the ramifications of China’s development for the Western world. Atlantik-Brücke’s CEO Julia Friedlander moderated the conversation.

Lire l’entretien en entier sur Atlantik-Brücke.

CHRONIQUE – Il y a six mois, Europe et États-Unis étaient confrontés à un dilemme : ils ne pouvaient ni laisser l’agression de l’Ukraine par la Russie réussir, ni envoyer des troupes pour combattre l’armée de Vladimir Poutine. Ils ont donc choisi de combattre par procuration en armant la résistance ukrainienne et de mener leur propre guerre économique et financière dans l’espoir d’affaiblir significativement la Russie. En quelques jours, les Occidentaux ont déployé un arsenal de sanctions sans précédent dont l’effet « shock and awe » (choc et effroi) devait amener l’agresseur à résipiscence. Qu’en est-il aujourd’hui ?

Olivier Appert, conseiller énergie de l’Ifri, estime “ubuesque” la polémique autour de TotalEnergies, accusé par le quotidien “Le Monde” d’utiliser son gaz pour alimenter les avions russes.

TotalEnergies joue-t-il un rôle indirect dans la guerre en Ukraine ? Le gaz sibérien produit par une entreprise codétenue par le groupe pétrolier français a permis de fabriquer du carburant destiné à alimenter des avions de guerre russes engagés dans le conflit, a accusé mercredi 24 août le journal Le Monde, qui se base sur plusieurs documents et une enquête de l’ONG Global Witness.

Selon eux, le champ gazier russe de Termokarstovoïe exploité par l’entreprise Terneftegaz – codétenue par le groupe français à 49% avec le russe Novatek (51%) – a fourni du condensat de gaz à une raffinerie proche d’Omsk, qui en a fait du carburant, lequel a ensuite été expédié pour alimenter les avions russes au moins jusqu’en juillet.

Lire l’article intégral sur le site de L’Express.

Publié le 29/08/2022

CHRONIQUE – Tout se passe comme si les conservateurs anglais, affligés d’un leadership de plus en plus médiocre, avaient perdu la raison.

Dans un contexte de plein-emploi historique, Canberra compte assouplir les conditions d’entrée des immigrés qualifiés.

Publié le 22/08/2022

CHRONIQUE – Les unités combattantes sont épuisées. La guerre de mouvement a fait place à la guerre d’usure.