Trump must avoid an ‘ugly deal’ with China
Beijing’s bait may be tempting, but he should never trade away security
Hiroyuki AKITA, Nikkei commentator
February 15, 2025
TOKYO — Just a few weeks into Donald Trump’s U.S. presidency, diplomatic and economic tensions between the U.S. and China are intensifying. On Feb. 4, Trump imposed an additional 10% tariff on all imports from China, signaling that further increases may follow.
Trump’s strategy to pressure China goes beyond trade disputes. He views China’s growing influence over the Panama Canal as a strategic threat and is poised to take action to remove its involvement there.
During a joint news conference with Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba on Feb. 7, Trump announced that the U.S. would strengthen its collaboration with Japan to counter China’s “economic aggression.” He pledged to deploy “the full strength of American deterrence capabilities” to defend Japan “100%” in the years ahead.
On the surface, it appears the U.S. is quickly heading toward a direct confrontation with China. However, Trump’s actions and rhetoric suggest a deeper intention to negotiate with Beijing for a “big, beautiful deal.”
Within the diplomatic circles of the world’s leading powers, two conflicting theories about Trump’s intentions are being discussed. One view holds that Trump sees China as a formidable adversary and is intent on ramping up pressure on both trade and diplomatic fronts. This approach could lead to an even more strained relationship than during his first term in office.
The alternative theory presents a stark contrast: Trump aims to secure favorable concessions from Chinese President Xi Jinping, using his pressure on China as a negotiation tactic.
While it is clear that Trump is concerned by China’s efforts to rival the U.S. in high-tech and economic sectors, his broader approach to China seems to align more with the second theory — seeking advantageous deals rather than engaging in outright strategic confrontations.
One strong argument for this view is Trump’s clear eagerness to engage with Xi. He initially extended an invitation to the Chinese leader for his inauguration in mid-January. When that didn’t materialize, Trump quickly expressed his desire to visit China at the earliest opportunity.
Furthermore, even on the eve of imposing the additional tariffs, Trump signaled plans to engage with the Chinese side “probably within 24 hours.” These actions clearly point to someone not gearing up for a confrontation.
Trump’s desire for direct negotiations with Xi goes beyond trade issues. He is also seeking Xi’s cooperation to help achieve his diplomatic goal of brokering a cease fire in Ukraine.
In a phone call with Xi just before taking office, Trump stressed the urgency of resolving the situation in Ukraine and urged cooperation, saying, “You ought to get it settled.”
The U.S. estimates that China supplies 70% to 90% of the precision electronic components and machine tools essential for Russia’s weapons production. Trump is expected to demand that Beijing halt these supplies.
Despite his harsh criticisms of China, Trump has avoided speaking negatively about Xi, instead praising him as a “great leader.” This suggests that Trump sees Xi as crucial to securing a successful U.S.-China deal through negotiation.
Patrick Cronin, the Asia-Pacific security chair at the Hudson Institute, a conservative think tank in Washington, anticipates an upcoming meeting between Trump and Xi. Speaking at the Tokyo Global Dialogue, a symposium held in Tokyo on Jan. 29, Cronin said the debate about a possible economic deal will unfold “over the next couple of months,” adding, “It will happen as well in a face to face meeting, I believe, in the next month, even between Xi Jinping and President Trump.”
Meanwhile, China is holding a firm stance against yielding to pressure from Washington but appears determined to avoid a full-scale confrontation with the U.S. In light of its sluggish economy, Beijing is prioritizing social stability.
China aims to become a superpower on par with the U.S. by 2050. In pursuit of this goal, escalating unnecessary confrontations with the U.S. is seen as unwise. Chinese diplomatic experts suggest that these considerations shape Beijing’s approach to managing its relationship with the Trump administration.
U.S. hardliners on China, including Secretary of State Marco Rubio and National Security Adviser Mike Waltz, are likely uneasy about Trump’s eagerness to strike a deal with China. They regard China as an enemy posing a security threat and are determined to counter it on all fronts.
However, Trump takes a different approach. He seems to believe that international politics are shaped not by rules or ethics, but by negotiations and deals between major powers. In this view, China can be both an adversary and an essential negotiating partner for the U.S.
Yet, Beijing might try to leverage Trump’s love of dealmaking, offering substantial trade concessions in exchange for U.S. compromises on key security issues like Taiwan and the South China Sea. If Trump takes the bait, the outcome could be remembered as an “ugly deal” that destabilizes Asia.
Looking ahead, three potential scenarios emerge. The first involves the U.S. and China reaching a trade agreement, accompanied by diplomatic compromises, possibly including issues like a cease fire in Ukraine. The second sees an initial trade agreement fall apart as compromises fail, leading to heightened conflicts over security issues. The third scenario offers a middle ground between these two outcomes.
Of these, the second scenario — marked by heightened tensions — seems the most likely, as the U.S. and China are not just addressing isolated issues but are moving toward a structural cold war. However, if Trump shows any softness toward China on security issues during this process, it could undermine stability in Asia.
Randall Schriver, a former assistant secretary of defense during Trump’s first term, comments on Trump’s reluctance to accept unfavorable deals. “Trump likes to view himself as a deal maker, however, he doesn’t take bad deals,” Schriver said. “He will be interested in what Xi Jinping has to offer, but I don’t see evidence that he would make undue sacrifices or sacrifice security.”
If Trump wants to prove his negotiating skills, he must resist the temptation to make an easy but ugly deal. Rushed compromises on security issues would only lead people to question his claimed dealmaking prowess.