Never take China’s ‘smile diplomacy’ at face value
Apparent goodwill to nations such as Japan and India expected to fade
Hiroyuki AKITA, Nikkei commentator
February 2, 2025 08:41 JST
TOKYO — When Russian President Vladimir Putin’s closest adviser visited Japan more than a decade ago, he secretly whispered this advice to Japanese policymakers.
“In Communist-ruled China, as was once the case in the Soviet Union, its [hard-line] foreign policy could shift suddenly and drastically, so stay alert.”
According to a source familiar with Japan-Russia relations, the advice came from Nikolai Patrushev, then-secretary of Russia’s Security Council.
Patrushev made the remarks in October 2012, the month after Japan nationalized the Senkaku Islands, which China claims as part of its territory. At the time, China responded vehemently to Japan’s actions, and a large fleet of Chinese vessels surged around the Senkaku area, escalating tensions.
Still, China’s policy toward Japan could change suddenly, and it would be wise not to miss that opportunity. That, clearly, was the essence of Patrushev’s advice.
Looking at the present, Beijing may be moving in the opposite direction, but this advice could still hold true. Recently, China has softened its diplomatic stance, ramping up interactions with Japan and India — both of which have territorial and maritime concerns with China — in an apparent attempt to ease tensions.
A symbolic event was the visit to China by Japanese Foreign Minister Takeshi Iwaya at the end of December. According to a Japanese official, Beijing went to great lengths to fill his 18-hour stay with as many meetings and activities as possible.
At a meeting with Iwaya, Chinese Premier Li Qiang said, “China-Japan relations are at an important period of improvement and development.” This was followed by a lunch with Wang Yi, a Politburo member and foreign minister, and dinner with Liu Jianchao, head of the Communist Party’s International Department. During the dinner, Iwaya and Liu discussed measures to promote personnel and economic exchanges between the two countries.
During its mid-January visit to China, a delegation from Japan’s ruling parties received a warm welcome. The group, composed of members from the Liberal Democratic Party and its junior coalition partner, Komeito, met with several high-ranking Communist Party figures, including two of the seven members of the Politburo Standing Committee and three of the top 24 Politburo members. According to the Japanese side, this was the first time in the past decade that so many senior Communist Party officials had engaged with a Japanese ruling party delegation in China.
In the meantime, Japan and China took reciprocal actions to improve ties, agreeing to ease visa restrictions. China has also started considering resuming imports of Japanese seafood, which have been halted since the summer of 2023 following the release of treated radioactive wastewater from the damaged Fukushima nuclear power plant.
China’s overtures are clearly tied to a political development in the U.S. — the return of Donald Trump to the presidency. Anticipating an increasingly bitter rivalry with the U.S., China is working to ease tensions with neighboring countries. Beijing is also seeking to boost its faltering economy by attracting more investment and trade.
China is also directing its “smile diplomacy” at India, as relations between the two have been strained in recent years. A June 2020 border clash resulted in over 20 fatalities, prompting India to restrict Chinese investments and visas. As a result, exchanges between the two Asian giants have stagnated.
The tide shifted in October when Chinese President Xi Jinping and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi met for the first time in five years. The leaders agreed on the need for stability in the disputed areas and, about two months later, decided on six concrete measures to achieve this goal.
According to a former senior Indian military officer with inside knowledge of his nation’s diplomatic affairs, it was China that first proposed the border stability measures. Regarding Beijing’s intentions, he suggested that the Chinese leadership likely wants to reduce flashpoints with India before a possible confrontation with the Trump administration.
Some U.S. allies, such as Australia and several European countries, were targeted by China’s goodwill gestures before Japan and India. By the end of 2024, Beijing had lifted all punitive tariffs on Australian wine and lobster. In April of the same year, China invited German Chancellor Olaf Scholz to Beijing, and the following month, Xi made his first visit to France in five years.
The key question is how long China’s overtures will last. Historically, China has used diplomatic maneuvers to approach U.S. allies and neighbors whenever tensions with the U.S. rise. However, this posture is often short-lived, as Beijing views it as secondary to addressing issues with Washington.
A typical example is China’s relations with Japan. In 1989, Beijing faced a severe
deterioration in its ties with Western countries after its crackdown on anti-government protests in Tiananmen Square. To avoid international isolation, China turned to Japan and sought to initiate mutual visits among leaders.
However, starting in the mid-1990s, Beijing’s attitude toward Japan cooled as U.S.-China relations began to improve. The government of then-President Jiang Zemin began intensifying criticism of Japan over historical issues, causing relations between the two countries to grow increasingly acrimonious.
The same pattern was repeated in 2018, the year after the first Trump administration came to power. That year, the prime ministers of Japan and China visited each other, hinting at a diplomatic thaw, but this did not result in a substantial change in their relationship.
Sadly, it is likely that Beijing’s current smile diplomacy will eventually fade, just as it has in the past. There will also be limits to the concessions China is willing to make, as its primary motive is to strategize against the U.S.
However, other countries should take advantage of China’s conciliatory gestures while they last and work to resolve difficult issues. At the same time, they should remain vigilant about China’s underlying intentions and prepare for a shift in policy and rising tensions.
Bilahari Kausikan, former permanent secretary of Singapore’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs, cautions against viewing Beijing’s current diplomatic stance as a sign of real change.
“This is a tactical move as China does not want to fight on too many fronts simultaneously, particularly since it has serious economic weaknesses,” Kausikan said. “Once Beijing becomes confident that relations with Trump will not get out of hand, it will revert to its old ways.
“We should enjoy the situation while it lasts, but should not get complacent and mistake a tactical shift for a substantive policy change.”