Trump’s bullying diplomacy harks back to Yalta-era world order
Greenland, Panama proposals show incoming leader’s focus on force over norms
Hiroyuki AKITA, Nikkei commentator
January 15, 2025 01:44 JST
TOKYO — With days to go before his inauguration, U.S. President-elect Donald Trump is already causing alarm with proposals to seize control of Greenland and the Panama Canal, as well as his refusal to rule out the use of military or economic force to do so.
The response from international officials can roughly be divided into two.
The first group sees the remarks merely as a bluff and a way to draw out diplomatic concessions. Even Trump would not truly think he can acquire Greenland, which is a Danish territory, or the Panama Canal, they say.
The second group believes Trump may be serious to some extent — that Trump considers international relations as a domain for major powers, where smaller countries should simply do what they are told.
It may be best to assume Trump’s worldview fits the latter. He has previously signaled his willingness to go over the heads of U.S. allies in order to settle international issues between major global powers.
In terms of the Ukraine war, the Biden administration has coordinated closely on its response with European NATO members. In contrast, Trump is looking to negotiate directly with Russian President Vladimir Putin to end the fighting. He has shown no interest so far in coordinating his position beforehand with European allies.
The same applies to North Korea. Rather than working with Japan and South Korea to contain the situation, Trump seems interested in making a breakthrough through direct talks with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un.
Trump has said he received “beautiful” love letters from Kim while in office. The warm comments are less about any personal affinity Trump feels toward Kim, and more a sign that he sees North Korea’s autocratic leader as an important negotiation partner.
Under the United Nations Charter created in the aftermath of World War II, every nation regardless of size is expected to abide by international rules. But Trump sees the world as a jungle governed by power, not ethics or rules. This view, which stems from his career in the cutthroat real estate sector, is not expected to change.
Trump has no interest in shaping the world order. However, he could unintentionally usher in the return of great-power diplomacy like the world saw from the Yalta Conference of 1945. From the creation of the U.N. to the occupation of Germany to determining spheres of influence, events after World War II unfolded largely the way U.S. President Franklin D. Roosevelt, British Prime Minister Winston Churchill and Soviet leader Joseph Stalin had agreed during the meeting.
Trump’s aggressive attitude against Denmark and Panama and his disregard for alliances makes sense when considering his interest in Yalta-like great-power dealmaking.
But it is Russian President Vladimir Putin who is most interested in the return of great-power diplomacy. He wants to decide on the future of Ukraine and the power balance in Europe through direct negotiations with Trump, putting the interest of U.S. allies on the back burner.
Concern over Trump’s diplomatic style loomed large over the World Policy Conference in the United Arab Emirates in December.
Trump’s approach “is the worst-case scenario” for Europe because it could result in “a deal between Putin and Trump that would be at the cost of Europe and Ukrainian security interests,” German lawmaker Norbert Roettgen said.
If there is a possibility that Trump will negotiate with the North Korean leader, “we hope that there will be very close consultation with South Korea,” said Hur Kyung-wook, South Korea’s former vice minister of strategy and finance.
In November, Alex Younger, former head of British intelligence service MI6, also expressed concerns over Trump in a podcast with the Financial Times.
“He’s a Yalta man through and through,” Younger said. “It’s all fundamentally inimical to Britain’s interests.”
Trump’s diplomacy could yield surprising results. But there is an even greater chance that he could create lasting problems.
While Putin and Kim essentially have no term limits, Trump has four years in office. If he rushes for a deal on the Ukraine war or North Korea, he would likely be put at a disadvantage.
U.S.-China ties are another thing to watch. Views on China within Trump’s team differ between hawks like Marco Rubio, Trumps choice for secretary of state, wealthy entrepreneurs like Elon Musk, and “America first” devotees like Vice President-elect JD Vance.
It is hard to imagine Musk, who is making big profits in China, taking a hard line against Beijing. While the America First faction is concerned about China, it is reluctant to spend heavily on defense to increase American involvement in Asia.
Trump has chosen to incorporate these varying viewpoints into his incoming administration. By leaving the door open to both hardline and conciliatory policies, he may be trying to keep China on its toes.
While a real estate deal concludes once a contract is signed, diplomacy does not end after one big deal. An impatient Trump could risk failure if he treats the two the same.